Markets strode with confidence this afternoon to the first green closes of the week — in fact, in the past six trading days for the S&P 500. Grappling to find traction after a flat open, the Dow earned +0.51% on the day, +183 points; the S&P was +0.92%; the tech-heavy Nasdaq stormed ahead 210 points, or +1.41%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 was +1.05% on the day.
After breaching 1.8% for the first time in a year, the 10-year Treasury yield cooled off somewhat today, closing the day at 1.745%. We’re clearly off those +0.5% lows we’d seen back in the summer of 2021, but concerns among market participants had been fearing higher spikes with every passing mention of tightening Fed policy. Watch this space, but nothing on this tack is spiraling out of control… yet.
In any case, the Dow and S&P are both back to 2% from their most recent all-time high closing prices. The Nasdaq, outperformer though it was today, is still 7% from its latest closing high. The good news is this was the first set of back-to-back days in the green for the Nasdaq since Christmas Week.
While questions remain regarding how U.S. equity investors in the U.S. will handle this historic tightening being undertaken, the World Bank today shares even deeper concerns for global growth. All estimates for 2022 growth in both Advanced Economies and Emerging/Developing Economies are below the actuals for 2021. Higher inflation and pricing is said to put more strain on emerging economies.
While we’re still seeing projections of growth around the world this year, these lower estimates bring into question whether per capita income may be shrinking in less affluent regions. This is especially true in the poorest countries, whom the World Bank sees falling even further behind in this currently projected scenario. Pressure on financial systems and credit tightening in places needing more credit, not less, are expected to add a drag to global growth overall.
Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is the next piece of econ data to be hotly anticipated. Since the downturn of the initial impact of the Covid pandemic in the U.S., the trajectory for the CPI has been something of a moonshot — particularly in the latter part of 2021. Expectations for last month are to show +0.4% consumer price growth — half of what we saw for November.
A cooling, yet still solidly positive, CPI headline tomorrow is the best possible scenario; this is an inflation metric we’d all rather see within a particular range rather than pushing beyond it. After all, as Fed Chair Powell said today before the Senate Banking Committee, “If we see inflation persisting at high levels longer than expected… [we will] raise interest rates more over time.” That’s not something market participants are very much looking forward to.
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Markets Close in the Green, 10-Year Levels Off
Markets strode with confidence this afternoon to the first green closes of the week — in fact, in the past six trading days for the S&P 500. Grappling to find traction after a flat open, the Dow earned +0.51% on the day, +183 points; the S&P was +0.92%; the tech-heavy Nasdaq stormed ahead 210 points, or +1.41%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 was +1.05% on the day.
After breaching 1.8% for the first time in a year, the 10-year Treasury yield cooled off somewhat today, closing the day at 1.745%. We’re clearly off those +0.5% lows we’d seen back in the summer of 2021, but concerns among market participants had been fearing higher spikes with every passing mention of tightening Fed policy. Watch this space, but nothing on this tack is spiraling out of control… yet.
In any case, the Dow and S&P are both back to 2% from their most recent all-time high closing prices. The Nasdaq, outperformer though it was today, is still 7% from its latest closing high. The good news is this was the first set of back-to-back days in the green for the Nasdaq since Christmas Week.
While questions remain regarding how U.S. equity investors in the U.S. will handle this historic tightening being undertaken, the World Bank today shares even deeper concerns for global growth. All estimates for 2022 growth in both Advanced Economies and Emerging/Developing Economies are below the actuals for 2021. Higher inflation and pricing is said to put more strain on emerging economies.
While we’re still seeing projections of growth around the world this year, these lower estimates bring into question whether per capita income may be shrinking in less affluent regions. This is especially true in the poorest countries, whom the World Bank sees falling even further behind in this currently projected scenario. Pressure on financial systems and credit tightening in places needing more credit, not less, are expected to add a drag to global growth overall.
Tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is the next piece of econ data to be hotly anticipated. Since the downturn of the initial impact of the Covid pandemic in the U.S., the trajectory for the CPI has been something of a moonshot — particularly in the latter part of 2021. Expectations for last month are to show +0.4% consumer price growth — half of what we saw for November.
A cooling, yet still solidly positive, CPI headline tomorrow is the best possible scenario; this is an inflation metric we’d all rather see within a particular range rather than pushing beyond it. After all, as Fed Chair Powell said today before the Senate Banking Committee, “If we see inflation persisting at high levels longer than expected… [we will] raise interest rates more over time.” That’s not something market participants are very much looking forward to.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>